Bubbles and Filaments: Stirring a Cahn-Hilliard Fluid

The advective Cahn-Hilliard equation describes the competing processes of stirring and separation in a two-phase fluid. Intuition suggests that bubbles will form on a certain scale, and previous studies of Cahn-Hilliard dynamics seem to suggest the presence of one dominant length scale. However, the Cahn-Hilliard phase-separation mechanism contains a hyperdiffusion term and we show that, by stirring the mixture at a sufficiently large amplitude, we excite the diffusion and overwhelm the segregation to create a homogeneous liquid. At intermediate amplitudes we see regions of bubbles coexisting with regions of hyperdiffusive filaments. Thus, the problem possesses two dominant length scales, associated with the bubbles and filaments. For simplicity, we use use a chaotic flow that mimics turbulent stirring at large Prandtl number. We compare our results with the case of variable mobility, in which growth of bubble size is dominated by interfacial rather than bulk effects, and find qualitatively similar results.Comment: 20 pages, 27 figures. RevTeX

How do brochures encourage walking in natural environments in the UK? A content analysis.

Although walking for leisure can support health, there has been little systematic attempt to consider how recreational walking is best promoted. In the UK, local authorities create promotional materials for walking networks, but little is known about whether they effectively encourage walking through persuasive messaging. Many of these materials pertain to walks in natural environments which evidence suggests are generally visited less frequently by physically inactive individuals. Consequently the present study explores whether and how recreational walking brochures use persuasive messages in their promotion of walks in natural environments. A coding taxonomy was developed to classify text in recreational walking brochures according to five behavioural content areas and 87 categories of potentially persuasive messages. Reliability of the taxonomy was ascertained and a quantitative content analysis was applied to 26 brochures collected from Devon, UK. Brochures often provided information about an advertised route, highlighted cultural and aesthetic points of interest, and provided directions. Brochures did not use many potentially effective messages. Text seldom prompted behaviour change or built confidence for walking. Social norm related information was rarely provided and there was a general lack of information on physical activity and its benefits for health and well-being. The limited range of message strategies used in recreational walking brochures may not optimally facilitate walking in natural environments for inactive people. Future research should examine the effects of theory-informed brochures on walking intentions and behaviour. The taxonomy could be adapted to suit different media and practices surrounding physical activity in natural environments

Association of Clinician Diagnostic Performance With Machine Learning-Based Decision Support Systems: A Systematic Review.

IMPORTANCE: An increasing number of machine learning (ML)-based clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) are described in the medical literature, but this research focuses almost entirely on comparing CDSS directly with clinicians (human vs computer). Little is known about the outcomes of these systems when used as adjuncts to human decision-making (human vs human with computer). OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review to investigate the association between the interactive use of ML-based diagnostic CDSSs and clinician performance and to examine the extent of the CDSSs' human factors evaluation. EVIDENCE REVIEW: A search of MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and grey literature was conducted for the period between January 1, 2010, and May 31, 2019. Peer-reviewed studies published in English comparing human clinician performance with and without interactive use of an ML-based diagnostic CDSSs were included. All metrics used to assess human performance were considered as outcomes. The risk of bias was assessed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) and Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies-Intervention (ROBINS-I). Narrative summaries were produced for the main outcomes. Given the heterogeneity of medical conditions, outcomes of interest, and evaluation metrics, no meta-analysis was performed. FINDINGS: A total of 8112 studies were initially retrieved and 5154 abstracts were screened; of these, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. The median number of participating clinicians was 4 (interquartile range, 3-8). Of the 107 results that reported statistical significance, 54 (50%) were increased by the use of CDSSs, 4 (4%) were decreased, and 49 (46%) showed no change or an unclear change. In the subgroup of studies carried out in representative clinical settings, no association between the use of ML-based diagnostic CDSSs and improved clinician performance could be observed. Interobserver agreement was the commonly reported outcome whose change was the most strongly associated with CDSS use. Four studies (11%) reported on user feedback, and, in all but 1 case, clinicians decided to override at least some of the algorithms' recommendations. Twenty-eight studies (76%) were rated as having a high risk of bias in at least 1 of the 4 QUADAS-2 core domains, and 6 studies (16%) were considered to be at serious or critical risk of bias using ROBINS-I. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This systematic review found only sparse evidence that the use of ML-based CDSSs is associated with improved clinician diagnostic performance. Most studies had a low number of participants, were at high or unclear risk of bias, and showed little or no consideration for human factors. Caution should be exercised when estimating the current potential of ML to improve human diagnostic performance, and more comprehensive evaluation should be conducted before deploying ML-based CDSSs in clinical settings. The results highlight the importance of considering supported human decisions as end points rather than merely the stand-alone CDSSs outputs

Pairwise tests of purchasing power parity

Given nominal exchange rates and price data on N + 1 countries indexed by i = 0,1,2,…, N, the standard procedure for testing purchasing power parity (PPP) is to apply unit root or stationarity tests to N real exchange rates all measured relative to a base country, 0, often taken to be the U.S. Such a procedure is sensitive to the choice of base country, ignores the information in all the other cross-rates and is subject to a high degree of cross-section dependence which has adverse effects on estimation and inference. In this article, we conduct a variety of unit root tests on all possible N(N + 1)/2 real rates between pairs of the N + 1 countries and estimate the proportion of the pairs that are stationary. This proportion can be consistently estimated even in the presence of cross-section dependence. We estimate this proportion using quarterly data on the real exchange rate for 50 countries over the period 1957-2001. The main substantive conclusion is that to reject the null of no adjustment to PPP requires sufficiently large disequilibria to move the real rate out of the band of inaction set by trade costs. In such cases, one can reject the null of no adjustment to PPP up to 90% of the time as compared to around 40% in the whole sample using a linear alternative and almost 60% using a nonlinear alternative

Lessons Learnt from Operationalising an International Collaborative Multi-Centre Study

Many medical students are both skilled and experienced in healthcare research, statistical analysis and evidence synthesis; assets that can be deployed to great effect in order to conduct research and contribute to the body of evidence - particularly in outbreak situations where senior doctors may be redeployed to clinical duties, thus ensuring that the next generation of academic clinicians’ interest and knowledge does not go in vain. Here, we document the process by which a group of medical students across the world, with senior support, harnessed their enthusiasm and the power of technology to play leading roles in an international multi-centre study run by the Global Health Research Group on Children’s Non-Communicable Diseases (Global Children’s NCDs). Many lessons have been learnt from the successful operationalisation of this study, which we hope to impart in this article. Our operations team consisted of: a social media team who manage our various accounts; a graphic design team who produce visuals to illustrate milestones achieved or highlight countries from which we did not yet have representatives; a network team who constructed a database to manage our extensive collaborator network; a communications team who managed emails and maintained regular contact with collaborators as well as producing a guide of common issues; a researcher support team who worked to ensure that any issues faced were dealt with promptly by hosting drop-in sessions; and finally a research capacity building team. We found that medical students bring fresh perspectives and an open-minded approach which is useful in reframing challenges and generating innovative solutions; thus it is vital to give them the opportunity to collaborate with, and learn from senior academics and policy-makers.&nbsp

Theoretical Study on Superconductivity in Boron-Doped Diamond

We consider superconductivity in boron (B) doped diamond using a simplified model for the valence band of diamond. We treat the effects of substitutional disorder of B ions by the coherent potential approximation (CPA) and those of the attractive force between holes by the ladder approximation under the assumption of instantaneous interaction with the Debye cutoff. We thereby calculate the quasiparticle life time, the evolution of the single-particle spectra due to doping, and the effect of disorder on the superconducting critical temperature $T_c$. We in particular compare our results with those for supercell calculations to see the role of disorder, which turns out to be of crucial importance to $T_c$.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures, submitted to J. Phys. Soc. Jpn., Errors in embedded eps figure files have been correcte

The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022

Background The third wave of COVID-19 in England peaked in January 2022 resulting from the rapid transmission of the Omicron variant. However, rates of hospitalisations and deaths were substantially lower than in the first and second waves Methods In the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study we obtained data from a random sample of 94,950 participants with valid throat and nose swab results by RT-PCR during round 18 (8 February to 1 March 2022). Findings We estimated a weighted mean SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 2.88% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.76–3.00), with a within-round reproduction number (R) overall of 0.94 (0·91– 0.96). While within-round weighted prevalence fell among children (aged 5 to 17 years) and adults aged 18 to 54 years, we observed a level or increasing weighted prevalence among those aged 55 years and older with an R of 1.04 (1.00–1.09). Among 1,195 positive samples with sublineages determined, only one (0.1% [0.0–0.5]) corresponded to AY.39 Delta sublineage and the remainder were Omicron: N=390, 32.7% (30.0–35.4) were BA.1; N=473, 39.6% (36.8–42.5) were BA.1.1; and N=331, 27.7% (25.2–30.4) were BA.2. We estimated an R additive advantage for BA.2 (vs BA.1 or BA.1.1) of 0.40 (0.36–0.43). The highest proportion of BA.2 among positives was found in London. Interpretation In February 2022, infection prevalence in England remained high with level or increasing rates of infection in older people and an uptick in hospitalisations. Ongoing surveillance of both survey and hospitalisations data is required. Funding Department of Health and Social Care, England

Characteristics associated with quality of life among people with drug-resistant epilepsy

Quality of Life (QoL) is the preferred outcome in non-pharmacological trials, but there is little UK population evidence of QoL in epilepsy. In advance of evaluating an epilepsy self-management course we aimed to describe, among UK participants, what clinical and psycho-social characteristics are associated with QoL. We recruited 404 adults attending specialist clinics, with at least two seizures in the prior year and measured their self-reported seizure frequency, co-morbidity, psychological distress, social characteristics, including self-mastery and stigma, and epilepsy-specific QoL (QOLIE-31-P). Mean age was 42 years, 54% were female, and 75% white. Median time since diagnosis was 18 years, and 69% experienced ≥10 seizures in the prior year. Nearly half (46%) reported additional medical or psychiatric conditions, 54% reported current anxiety and 28% reported current depression symptoms at borderline or case level, with 63% reporting felt stigma. While a maximum QOLIE-31-P score is 100, participants’ mean score was 66, with a wide range (25–99). In order of large to small magnitude: depression, low self-mastery, anxiety, felt stigma, a history of medical and psychiatric comorbidity, low self-reported medication adherence, and greater seizure frequency were associated with low QOLIE-31-P scores. Despite specialist care, UK people with epilepsy and persistent seizures experience low QoL. If QoL is the main outcome in epilepsy trials, developing and evaluating ways to reduce psychological and social disadvantage are likely to be of primary importance. Educational courses may not change QoL, but be one component supporting self-management for people with long-term conditions, like epilepsy

Phonons in random alloys: the itinerant coherent-potential approximation

We present the itinerant coherent-potential approximation(ICPA), an analytic, translationally invariant and tractable form of augmented-space-based, multiple-scattering theory in a single-site approximation for harmonic phonons in realistic random binary alloys with mass and force-constant disorder. We provide expressions for quantities needed for comparison with experimental structure factors such as partial and average spectral functions and derive the sum rules associated with them. Numerical results are presented for Ni_{55} Pd_{45} and Ni_{50} Pt_{50} alloys which serve as test cases, the former for weak force-constant disorder and the latter for strong. We present results on dispersion curves and disorder-induced widths. Direct comparisons with the single-site coherent potential approximation(CPA) and experiment are made which provide insight into the physics of force-constant changes in random alloys. The CPA accounts well for the weak force-constant disorder case but fails for strong force-constant disorder where the ICPA succeeds.Comment: 19 pages, 12 eps figures, uses RevTex